The number of children in public schools is declining. Though the U.S. population continues to grow, the number of kids attending public K-12 schools will likely never again reach its 2019 peak. The rise of homeschooling—from around 2.8 percent of the school-aged population pre-pandemic to around 5.8 percent now (reliable statistics are hard to come by)—is a chief contributor to that decline, along with ever-decreasing birth rates. Between fall of 2019 and fall of 2030, the National Center for Public Education Statistics (NCES) projected this past February, public school enrollment will decrease by 7 percent, from 50.8 million to 47.3 million.
The NCES estimates that taxpayer expenditures on K-12 schools will tick up slightly from $693 billion in 2018-19 (using constant 2021 dollars) to $698 billion in 2030-31. Per-pupil spending, adjusted for inflation, will therefore continue its long-term trend of increasing, from $13,700 to $14,800 (these numbers may not include capital bonds). The number of kids attending charter schools—”public” in name, but managed by private entities rather than government—has more than doubled since 2010-11, from 1.8 million to 3.7 million in 2021-22. This is despite Democratic politicians, from the president on down, seeking in recent years to restrict charters’ proliferation and even roll them back.
“If you subtract the charter school students,” former Houston Chronicle columnist Bill King observed in a trenchant analysis last week, “enrollment in traditional public schools peaked in 2012 and has since declined by 5%.”
What are teachers unions getting for their 99 percent-plus political-donation spending on Democrats? On the local level, Democratic-dominated polities like the state of New York are still pushing through mandatory class-size reductions, which—surprise!—requires hiring more teachers even as the student population declines. And certainly, muscle-flexing groups like the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) will find it advantageous in contract negotiations to be bargaining with a former CTU lobbyist they helped elect.
Now lets look at the demographic changes since 1960. Note that a lot of people have no children in the system and may be inclined to say “NO” to new and higher taxes. School districts need to understand that what’s worked in the past may not in the future. We need fewer teachers. WE can use a mix of technology and people to meet the needs of tomorrow.
Sources:
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.